Monsoon Forecast Accuracy and Economic Implications: IMD vs Skymet
Contents4
Livemint - Economy · 16 Apr 2026 · 1 min read
Prelims · Economy Mains · GS3 Economy High relevance
IMD and Skymet predict below-normal monsoon rainfall (92-94% of LPA), with 70% probability of poor conditions, risking agricultural output and inflation amid global disruptions.
Key points
El Niño is expected to cause one of the driest monsoons in eight years, with IMD forecasting 92% of LPA and Skymet 94%, both below the normal range (96-104%).
Economic Impact: A below-normal monsoon could exacerbate food inflation, already pressured by West Asia conflicts, recalling 2023's 6.6% inflation spike due to similar conditions.
Agricultural Dependence: Monsoon rainfall supports 75-80% of India's precipitation, 40% of food production, and 20% of GDP, making accurate forecasts critical for water and crop planning.
Forecast Accuracy: Both agencies miss rainfall intensity by >±5% 60% of the time, with Skymet's errors worsening recently (e.g., 15.7pp deviation in 2015 vs IMD's 6.7pp).
Historical Context: Drought years (2002, 2009, 2014-15) saw farm GVA shrink or stagnate; 2023's 94.6% LPA led to 2.6% GVA growth, highlighting resilience but vulnerability.
[GS3-Economy] Supply Chain Risks: Fertilizer shortages from West Asia conflicts could compound monsoon deficits, necessitating policy reforms in subsidies and import diversification.
Way Forward: India should invest in advanced climate modeling, diversify water storage infrastructure, and create a contingency fund for farmers to mitigate monsoon volatility.
Key terms
- Gross Value Added (GVA)
- A measure of economic output excluding taxes and subsidies. Agricultural GVA's sensitivity to monsoon variability (e.g., -6.6% in 2002) underscores its relevance for GS3 (Economy) growth analysis.
- India Meteorological Department (IMD)
- The government agency responsible for weather forecasting under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Its monsoon predictions influence national policies on food security and disaster management, key for GS2 (Governance).
- Long-Period Average (LPA)
- The 50-year average rainfall (87cm) used as a benchmark for monsoon forecasts. Deviations below 90% indicate drought, affecting crop yields and water tables, crucial for GS3 (Agriculture) and GS1 (Geography).
- El Niño
- A periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters disrupting global weather patterns, often causing reduced monsoon rainfall in India. Its economic and agricultural impacts are recurrent UPSC topics in GS1 and GS3.
Practice question
Discuss the economic implications of below-normal monsoon forecasts in India, with special reference to the challenges posed by El Niño conditions. (250 words, 15 marks)
GS3 15 marks 250 words Mains
Key terms to include: El Niño Gross Value Added (GVA) Long-Period Average (LPA) India Meteorological Department (IMD) food inflation agricultural GVA monsoon variability climate modeling
Answer framework
Introduction
Briefly introduce the context of monsoon forecasts by IMD and Skymet, highlighting the prediction of below-normal rainfall due to El Niño conditions.
Impact on Agriculture
Monsoon supports 75-80% of India's precipitation and 40% of food production.
Below-normal rainfall can lead to reduced crop yields, affecting agricultural GVA (e.g., -6.6% in 2002).
Dependence on monsoon makes farming vulnerable, especially in rain-fed areas.
Economic Consequences
Food inflation risks due to reduced agricultural output (e.g., 6.6% inflation spike in 2023).
Impact on rural incomes and consumption, affecting overall GDP growth.
Supply chain disruptions, especially with existing global conflicts (e.g., fertilizer shortages).
Forecast Accuracy and Policy Challenges
IMD and Skymet's historical errors (>±5% 60% of the time) complicate planning.
Need for advanced climate modeling and better forecasting tools.
Policy gaps in water storage infrastructure and contingency funds for farmers.
Conclusion
Suggest a way forward, emphasizing investment in climate-resilient agriculture, diversification of water resources, and policy reforms to mitigate economic risks.
Fact check
All facts verified