NITI Aayog Projects Renewable Energy Dominance by 2070 Amid Structural Challenges

Indian Express - Explained · 23 Feb 2026 · 2 min read
Prelims · Environment Mains · GS3 Environment and biodiversity High relevance

NITI Aayog's study forecasts renewable energy to comprise over 80% of India's electricity generation by 2070, but highlights structural challenges like intermittency and grid constraints that currently limit its actual contribution.

Key points

NITI Aayog projects renewable energy's share in electricity generation to rise from 20% in 2024-25 to over 80% by 2070 under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), with coal declining to 6-10%.

Under the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), aligned with India's 2070 net-zero target, coal-based generation could drop to zero, requiring massive scaling of renewable and nuclear energy.

Nuclear power is seen as crucial, with capacity projected to grow from 8.18 GW in 2025 to 90-135 GW by 2070 under CPS, and up to 295-320 GW under NZS, providing carbon-free base-load power.

Despite tripling renewable capacity from 76.38 GW in 2014 to 258 GW by 2025, actual generation share remains modest (22% in 2024-25) due to Capacity Utilisation Factors (CUF) and intermittency issues.

Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Pumped Storage Plants are critical for grid stability, with BESS projected to scale from 50 GW in 2030 to 1,300-1,400 GW by 2070 under CPS.

[GS3-Economy] The transition hinges on reducing costs of long-duration storage technologies and addressing high capital costs of nuclear projects, which remain barriers to rapid decarbonization.

Coal will remain critical in the near term, peaking at 450-470 GW by 2050 under CPS, as renewables and storage technologies scale up to meet demand and ensure grid stability.

The study emphasizes Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as a solution for industrial and captive power consumers to transition from coal, supporting India's low-carbon goals.

This connects to GS2-Governance as effective grid management and policy coordination between central and state agencies will be vital to address intermittency and variability challenges.

Way Forward: India should accelerate R&D in energy storage technologies, streamline approvals for nuclear projects, and incentivize private sector investment in renewable infrastructure to bridge the gap between capacity and actual generation.

Key terms

Net Zero Scenario (NZS)

A policy pathway aimed at achieving net-zero carbon emissions by balancing emitted greenhouse gases with removals. For UPSC, it is critical for understanding India's climate commitments under the Paris Agreement and its implications for energy, economy, and international diplomacy.

Capacity Utilisation Factor (CUF)

The ratio of actual energy generated by a power plant to its maximum possible output. In UPSC context, it explains why renewable energy sources like solar and wind often underperform compared to installed capacity due to intermittency and variability.

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)

Compact nuclear reactors designed for scalability and lower upfront costs. Relevant for UPSC as they offer a potential solution for decarbonizing industrial heat and providing reliable baseload power in India's energy transition.

Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)

Technologies that store energy for later use, essential for managing renewable intermittency. For UPSC, BESS is pivotal in achieving grid stability and meeting India's renewable energy targets under schemes like the National Energy Storage Mission.