Tarique Rahman's Leadership in Bangladesh: Implications for India's Neighbourhood Policy and Regional Stability

Indian Express - Opinion · 22 Feb 2026 · 2 min read
Prelims · International relations Mains · GS2 International relations High relevance

Tarique Rahman's potential leadership in Bangladesh could reshape India-Bangladesh relations, affecting regional connectivity, security cooperation, and water-sharing agreements, with broader implications for South Asian geopolitics.

Key points

Tarique Rahman, likely to lead Bangladesh's new government, may adopt an assertive stance on issues like the Teesta water-sharing agreement, trade imbalances, and border management, complicating bilateral relations with India.

India's historical ties with the Awami League facilitated deep cooperation in security, connectivity, and electricity trade, but Rahman's leadership may shift focus toward balanced engagement with China, Japan, and Western countries.

Security cooperation between India and Bangladesh, including intelligence sharing and counter-insurgency efforts, may face challenges under Rahman's government, impacting regional stability.

[GS3-Environment] The Teesta River dispute remains unresolved, and Rahman's stance could escalate tensions, affecting water security and agricultural livelihoods in both countries.

Connectivity projects like road, rail, and inland waterways linking eastern India to Bangladesh may stall, disrupting regional trade and economic integration.

[GS2-Governance] Domestic political narratives in Bangladesh often instrumentalise relations with India during transitions, potentially reviving debates on sovereignty and minority rights.

The Jamaat-e-Islami's influence, though limited, could shape public discourse on identity and India-Bangladesh relations, slowing bilateral rapprochement.

Sub-regional groupings like BIMSTEC and BBIN may see altered dynamics if Bangladesh shifts its alignment, affecting regional cooperation in the Bay of Bengal.

Way Forward: India should institutionalise bilateral cooperation beyond political parties, accelerate pending connectivity projects, and engage in multilateral water-sharing frameworks to ensure long-term stability.

Key terms

Teesta water-sharing agreement

A long-pending bilateral dispute between India and Bangladesh over the sharing of Teesta River waters, critical for irrigation and livelihoods in both countries. The agreement's resolution is vital for regional water security and diplomatic relations.

Awami League

A major political party in Bangladesh, historically aligned with India, known for fostering bilateral ties in trade, security, and connectivity. Its leadership under Sheikh Hasina deepened India-Bangladesh cooperation.

BIMSTEC

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, a regional grouping including India and Bangladesh, focusing on connectivity, trade, and counter-terrorism. Its success hinges on member states' political alignment.

Jamaat-e-Islami

A conservative Islamist political party in Bangladesh, often critical of India. Its influence, though marginal, can shape anti-India narratives and complicate bilateral relations during political transitions.