US-Iran Conflict Reshapes Iraq's Geopolitical Landscape: Implications for West Asian Stability

Indian Express - Explained · 30 Mar 2026 · 2 min read
Prelims · International relations Mains · GS2 International relations High relevance

The US-Iran conflict has destabilized Iraq's internal politics, empowering Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) while accelerating US-NATO withdrawal, creating a power vacuum that threatens regional security and India's energy interests.

Key points

Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) emerged in 2014 as Iraq's primary defense against ISIS, sanctioned by Ayatollah Sistani's fatwa, but later fragmented into pro-Iran, nationalist, and Sadrist factions with competing agendas.

The 2020 US assassination of Qasem Soleimani and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis shifted Iraq's power dynamics, strengthening nationalist factions but failing to curb Iran's influence over key PMF units like Kata'ib Hezbollah.

[GS2-International Relations] Iraq's strategic balancing between US and Iran reflects the broader West Asian power struggle, directly impacting India's energy security given Iraq's role as a key crude oil supplier.

The March 2024 US-Israeli airstrike on PMF's Anbar headquarters and subsequent Iraqi authorization of PMF retaliation marks a critical escalation, undermining Baghdad's sovereignty over security decisions.

PMF's dual role as military force and political actor (via electoral wings) exemplifies Iran's 'forward defense' strategy, using proxy networks to project regional influence while avoiding direct confrontation.

[GS3-Security] NATO's full withdrawal after 22 years creates a security vacuum that PMF factions may exploit, potentially destabilizing Iraq's fragile democratic institutions and enabling ISIS resurgence.

The 2016 Iraqi law integrating PMF into formal military structures failed to establish state monopoly on violence, instead institutionalizing militia power - a cautionary case for post-conflict security sector reforms.

Iran's use of PMF to target US bases in Ain al-Asad and Baghdad's Green Zone demonstrates asymmetric warfare tactics that complicate traditional deterrence frameworks.

This connects to GS2-Governance through Iraq's failed DDR (Disarmament, Demobilization, Reintegration) process, highlighting challenges in transitioning hybrid armed groups into state security apparatuses.

Way Forward: Iraq needs international support for inclusive security sector reform, regional dialogue mechanisms to de-escalate US-Iran tensions, and economic diversification to reduce militia recruitment pools, while India must diversify energy sources and engage diplomatically with all Iraqi factions.

Key terms

Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF)

An umbrella group of Iran-backed militias formed in 2014 to combat ISIS, later recognized as 'independent military formations' under Iraqi law. For UPSC, it exemplifies hybrid warfare actors challenging state sovereignty and the risks of external patronage in post-conflict states.

Quds Force

The external operations wing of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for extraterritorial military and intelligence operations. Relevant for GS2-IR as it orchestrates Iran's proxy warfare strategy across West Asia, including support to PMF factions.

Ain al-Asad Airbase

The largest US-operated military base in Iraq, repeatedly targeted by Iran-backed militias. Strategically significant for GS3-Security as a flashpoint in US-Iran tensions and a case study in forward base vulnerabilities.

Disarmament, Demobilization, Reintegration (DDR)

A UN-backed post-conflict process to transition combatants to civilian life. Critical for GS2-Governance as Iraq's failed DDR of PMF demonstrates institutional challenges in reconciling armed groups with democratic governance.